WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Saturday 09 May 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 09 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has gained a little bit of strength as it moved in a generally northwesterly track during the past 6 hours over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea…will pass close to the northeast of Catanduanes by late this afternoon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday early afternoon (May 10)…with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).
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CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes and the easternmost part of Camarines Sur – today (Saturday, May 09); Most parts of Bicol Region – beginning this Saturday afternoon (May 09) through Sunday (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora, Isabela and Cagayan – Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, May 08…1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the South-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 127.5E)
About: 335 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar…or 345 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center…Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 220 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 490 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km North from the center and 110 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours…turning to northwest on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the northeastern shores of Catanduanes on Saturday afternoon and shall be nearing the eastern shores of Isabela through Sunday morning (May 10). It will make landfall along the eastern shores of Isabela before noon of Sunday, May 11.
NOUL (DODONG) is still expected to gain strength within the next 24 hours…and afterwards it will start to gradually weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northeastern Luzon to its circulation upon making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph on Saturday (May 09).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Gaining strength as it passes near to the northeast of Camarines Provinces…about 135 km north of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM MAY 09: 15.3N 124.4E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EVENING: Turns to northwest to north-northwest…and makes landfall along Eastern Isabela and Cagayan…weakens slightly…about 20 km west of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM MAY 10: 18.5N 121.9E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EVENING: Turns sharply to the north, across Calayan and the Batanes Group of Islands…weakens significantly into a minimal typhoon…about 170 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM MAY 11: 21.9N 122.6E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri May 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 360 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 395 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 415 km E of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 465 km ESE of Metro Naga
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph